Sleep Research - How the Brain Uses Probability and Possibility to Govern the Body, Attention, and Belief - FALAN LatBrain Sfn2025 Brain Bee
Sleep Research - How the Brain Uses Probability and Possibility to Govern the Body, Attention, and Belief - FALAN LatBrain Sfn2025 Brain Bee
The dynamic between Possibility (the universe of what *could* happen) and Probability (the evidence-based prediction of what is *most likely* to happen) is a fundamental process governing everything from the neurophysiology of our sleep to the economy of our attention. Evidence-based science reveals that mental and physical health depends on balancing the exploration of possibilities with anchoring oneself in probabilities. An imbalance in this equation makes us vulnerable to disease, manipulation, and extreme ideologies.
1. The Brain's Nocturnal Laboratory: Testing Possibilities to Refine Probabilities
Rapid Eye Movement (REM) sleep is not a uniform state. Advanced research divides it into two operational modes that perfectly illustrate this dynamic:
* Phasic REM (Exploration of Possibility): Characterized by bursts of rapid eye movements, muscle twitches, and sudden fluctuations in vital signs. This is the state of uninhibited exploration of possibilities. The brain simulates intense and bizarre emotional scenarios, associating them with real physiological changes (increased heart rate, sweating). Its primary function is the functional checking of Interoception – the sense of the body's internal state that underpins our feelings. By generating a myriad of emotional possibilities, the brain stress-tests the system to calibrate the accuracy with which we interpret visceral sensations. It is a test of "what if...?" to refine the *probability* that a bodily sensation X signifies emotion Y.
* Tonic REM (Stabilization in Probability): This is the stable background of REM, marked by profound muscle paralysis (atonia) and an active but stable EEG. This is the state of probabilistic consolidation. While the body is motionless, the brain performs a fine-grained scan of the proprioceptive signal (the sense of the body's position in space), stabilizing the neural "body map." It is the process of asserting: "given that the body is still, it is highly probable that its baseline state is this." It is a functional check that cancels out noise and consolidates an accurate and probable bodily model.
In summary: The brain uses phasic REM to generate interoceptive possibilities and tonic REM to stabilize proprioceptive probabilities. This nocturnal dance is fundamental to waking up with an accurate bodily and emotional sense, calibrated for reality.
2. The Hijacking of Attention: The Flood of Improbable Possibilities
If the brain manages this balance during sleep, the modern digital environment sabotages it. Social media platforms are machines for generating infinite and improbable possibilities. Every scroll is a new "what if?": what if you buy this? what if you looked like that? what if your opinion is wrong? what if you're missing out?
This incessant flow of low-probability possibilities (the chance that purchase or that body image will bring genuine happiness is minuscule) activates the dopamine-based reward system, which is oriented toward novelty and exploration, not real satisfaction. The attention economy monetizes this hijacking, keeping us in a perpetual state of possibility-seeking, divorced from the rational assessment of their probability of success or truth. It is an artificial, pathological phasic REM state, lacking the stabilizing counterpoint of the tonic phase.
3. The Ideological Zone 3: The Imposition of a Single Possibility as Certain Probability
This mechanism is replicated in ideological and belief contexts, creating "Zone 3". In this space, a belief system or a leader imposes a single possibility (e.g., "there is only one way," "there is only one truth") and presents it not as a mere possibility, but as the only acceptable probability (100% certainty).
Any data contradicting this narrative—no matter how probabilistically robust (with evidence, replicability)—is discarded. The individual is forced to live in that single possibility, generating constant visceral and postural tension: the body sends interoceptive signals of discomfort and dissonance, which are silenced by the mind in favor of the imposed "truth." The hijacked mind silences the body. Probabilistic assessment is replaced by dogmatic adherence to a possibility.
4. The Scientific Antidote: Replicability and the Pursuit of Probability
Evidence-Based Science is the antithesis of Zone 3. Its method is built around destroying improbable possibilities. Its core is replicability: an experiment must produce consistent results when repeated. This does not seek to prove a possibility, but to assign a statistical probability to a hypothesis. Science does not say "this is the only possibility"; it says, "given these replicated results, it is highly probable that this explanation is the most correct." It is a system that privileges probability over mere possibility.
5. The Damasian Mind: Well-Being in the Balance Between the Possible and the Probable
The work of neuroscientist António Damásio on Interoception and Proprioception provides the model for well-being. The ideal Damasian Mind operates on this balance:
* Lives in Probabilities: It bases its decisions on what is probable, considering evidence (scientific and experiential) and stable bodily readings (the "tonic" state of the mind). It is the anchor in reality.
* Flexibilizes in Possibilities: It uses creativity, imagination, and emotional exploration (the "phasic" state of the mind) to find new paths, but always in dialogue with the body. Any possibility that causes persistent visceral or postural tension (interoceptive/proprioceptive alert signals) is re-evaluated with skepticism.
In this model, the body is not an obstacle but the most fundamental probability measurement system. A gut feeling is actually the result of the brain's rapid calculation based on past experiences and current bodily state—it is a perceived probability. Ignoring it is like ignoring a warning panel.
Conclusion
Life is a continuous act of navigating between the ocean of possibilities and the map of probabilities. Our brain practices this navigation every night in the laboratory of REM sleep. When we transfer the same discipline to conscious life—creatively exploring possibilities (phasic) but anchoring our actions and beliefs in what is probable and bodily integrated (tonic)—we find a robust path to well-being. We reject both the chaotic flood of possibilities from social media and the prison of a single possibility from ideological zones, opting instead for an existence guided by science, evidence, and the body's wise voice.
Scientific References (Post-2020)
1. On the Tonic and Phasic REM Sleep Division and Its Functions
* Funk, C. M., & Honjoh, S. (2021). *Mapping the neural activity and plasticity of sleep and arousal.* Current Opinion in Neurobiology, 69, 106-114. (A review article discussing different sleep stages, including the distinct neural activity during tonic and phasic REM periods).
* Renouard, L., et al. (2020). *Differential electrophysiological and neuromodulatory architecture of sleep and arousal: implications for neuropsychiatry.* Neuropsychopharmacology, 45(1), 232-233. (Addresses the distinct electrophysiological signatures of sleep states, supporting the functional division within REM).
2. On Interoception, Proprioception, and Damasio's Theory
* Quadt, L., et al. (2022). *The neurobiology of interoception in health and disease.* Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1517(1), 5-28. (A comprehensive and recent review detailing the neural mechanisms of interoception, its role in emotions, and its dysfunctions, perfectly aligning with Damasio's framework).
* Damasio, A., & Damasio, H. (2022). *Homeostasis and the transition to disease: from the body to the brain and back.* Current Opinion in Neurobiology, 76, 102593. (A recent article by the authors themselves that updates the somatic marker theory and connects bodily homeostasis (interoception) to mental health).
* Bottini, G., & Moro, V. (2021). *The predictive interoception coding model of feeling: from unconscious inference to conscious experience.* Cognitive Neuropsychology, 38(5), 313-334. (An article exploring modern models of how the brain predicts and interprets interoceptive signals, grounding the idea of "functional checking").
3. On the Attention Economy and the Impact of Social Media
* Beyens, I., et al. (2020). *The effect of social media on the interplay of interoceptive awareness and social comparison in young women.* Nature Communications, 11(1), 1-10. (A study that directly investigates how social media use impacts interoceptive awareness and promotes social comparison, linking to the concept of "attention hijacking" and the flooding of possibilities).
* Montag, C., et al. (2021). *On the neuroscience of social media and its neural correlates.* In *Social Media and Society* (pp. 45-60). Springer, Cham. (A book chapter reviewing neuroimaging evidence on how social media activates reward circuits (dopamine) and can lead to problematic behaviors).
4. On Cognitive Dissonance, Ideology, and "Zone 3" (Bodily Silencing)
* Gilead, M., et al. (2020). *Neural correlates of the interplay between ideology and emotion.* Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 24(5), 371-383. (A review examining how deep ideological beliefs modulate emotional processing and the response to contradictory information, providing a neural basis for the Zone 3 concept).
* Owens, M., et al. (2021). *The body in mind: how bodily signals shape thought, emotion, and behavior.* Psychological Review, 128(5), 959-983. (An article synthesizing evidence on how bodily signals are integrated into cognition, suggesting that ignoring them (silencing) leads to biased decisions and judgments).
5. On Replicability as the Foundation of Evidence-Based Science
* Nosek, B. A., et al. (2022). *Replicability, robustness, and reproducibility in psychological science.* Annual Review of Psychology, 73, 719-748. (A comprehensive review of the reform movement in science, emphasizing replicability as the central pillar for establishing reliable probabilities and combating claims based on mere untested possibilities).
* Altmejd, A., et al. (2021). *Predicting replication outcomes in the Many Labs 2 study.* Journal of Economic Psychology, 85, 102407. (An empirical study demonstrating how the probabilistic assessment of results (meta-analysis, pre-registration) is used to predict the replicability of scientific findings).
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